Today we sit down with Elliott Wave International’s Futures Junctures Editor and Senior Tutorial Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy to discuss his favorite wave pattern of all: the diagonal.
EWI: You say if you had to pick just ONE of all 13 known Elliott wave structures to spend the rest of your technical trading life with, it would be the diagonal. First, tell us what the diagonal is.
Jeffrey Kennedy: The diagonal is a five-wave pattern labeled 1 through 5, in which each leg subdivides into three smaller waves: 3-3-3-3-3. Unlike impulse waves, however, diagonals are the only five-wave structures in the direction of the main trend in which wave 4 almost always moves into the price territory of wave 1. (See illustrations below.)
EWI: So, what makes this pattern so darn special?
JK: As you can see in the above charts, the diagonal is a terminating pattern. They can only occur in waves 5 of impulses or C-waves of corrections. This is why they’re so exciting. Diagonals precede a dramatic change in trend. And, when they end, prices tend to retrace the entire pattern, or more, and fast — in 1/3 to 1/2 the time it took the pattern to form.
Put simply: If you see a diagonal, you know the train of change is coming into the station.
EWI: Well, in your Daily Futures Junctures service, you do, in fact, see a diagonal underway in the recent price action of a major grain market. There, you present the following Elliott wave chart (some Elliott labels have been removed, while I took the liberty to draw a blue circle around the diagonal pattern for clarity):
JK: Yes. This is a classic diagonal unfolding in the final wave of the larger trend. As you can see, prices have put the finishing touches on wave (v) of c (circled). And, if my wave count is correct, this market’s prices are about to board the “Exciting Southbound Turn” Railway.
EWI: Thank you so much for taking the time to explain the ins and outs of your favorite structure, the diagonal. And also, for alerting readers to the possible DRAMA in store for this major grain market thanks to this Elliott wave pattern.
Learn More about Diagonals and Other Elliott Wave Patterns
Get a better understanding of Elliott wave analysis with our Elliott Wave Patterns educational feature. You’ll have access to basic lessons on Elliott wave patterns, along with video clips from our online courses which will explain the pattern, the rules and the guidelines.
Plus, you’ll see real-life examples that show you how each pattern fits into the overall wave structure. Some patterns will even offer a brief quiz to test your knowledge and ensure that you understand the material.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Diagonal: Straight Shot to a Trading Opportunity. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Elliott Wave Princple can help you identify the current trend in the market and possible turning points. When you are watching a pattern develop on a chart, how can you be sure that your wave count is correct? The Elliott Wave Principle offers rules and guidelines that you can use to add confidence to your wave count.
Elliott Wave International’s Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy spent years designing his own technique to improve his accuracy. He came up with the Jeffrey Kennedy Channeling Technique, which he uses to confirm his wave counts. The following excerpt from Jeffrey’s Trader’s Classroom lessons, a regular feature of his Futures Junctures Service, offers an overview of his method.
The theory is simple: Five waves break down into three channels, and three waves need only one. The price movement in and out of these channels confirms each Elliott wave.
Base Channel
Figure 61 shows three separate five-wave patterns with three different channels drawn: the base channel, the acceleration channel and the deceleration channel.
The base channel contains the origin of wave one, the end of wave two and the extreme of wave one (Figure 61A). Of the three channels, the base channel is most important, because it defines the trend. As long as prices stay within the base channel, we can safely consider the price action corrective. Over the years, we’ve discovered that most corrective wave patterns stay within one price channel (Figure 62). Only after prices have moved through the upper or lower boundary lines of this channel is an impulsive wave count suitable, which brings us to the acceleration channel.
Acceleration Channel
The acceleration channel encompasses wave three. Use the extreme of wave one, the most recent high and the bottom of wave two to draw this channel (Figure 61B). As wave three develops, you will need to redraw the acceleration channel to accommodate new highs.
Once prices break through the lower boundary line of the acceleration channel, we have confirmation that wave three is over and that wave four is unfolding. Wave four will often end near the upper boundary line of the base channel or moderately within the parallel lines. If prices break through the lower boundary line of the base channel decisively, it means the trend is down, and you need to draw new channels.
Deceleration Channel
The deceleration channel contains wave four (Figure 61C). To draw the deceleration channel, simply connect the extremes of wave three and wave B with a trend line. Take a parallel of this line, and place it on the extreme of wave A. Price action that stays within one price channel is often corrective. When prices break through the upper boundary line of this channel, you can expect a fifth-wave rally next.
In a nutshell, prices need to break out of the base channel to confirm the trend. Movement out of the acceleration channel confirms that wave four is in force, and penetration of the deceleration channel lines signals that wave five is under way.
14 Critical Lessons Every Trader Should KnowSince 1999, Jeffrey Kennedy has produced dozens of Trader’s Classroom lessons exclusively for his subscribers. Now you can get “the best of the best” in these 14 lessons that offer the most critical information every trader should know.
Find out why traders fail, the three phases of a trader’s education, and how to make yourself a better trader with lessons on the Wave Principle, bar patterns, Fibonacci sequences, and more!
How MACD technical Indicator Can Identify Three Trade Setups By Elliott Wave International
Trading using technical indicators — such as the Stochastics, Moving Averages, MACD, for example — can do one of two things: help you or hurt you.
Elliott Wave International’s Jeffrey Kennedy explains what he loves and hates about technical indicators and shows you how he uses them to his advantage in this excerpt from his FREE eBook, The Commodity Trader’s Classroom.
I love a good love-hate relationship, and that’s what I’ve got with technical indicators. Technical indicators are those fancy computerized studies that you frequently see at the bottom of price charts that are supposed to tell you what the market is going to do next (as if they really could). The most common studies include MACD, Stochastics, RSI, and ADX, just to name a few.
The No. 1 (and Only) Reason to Hate Technical Indicators
I often hate technical studies because they divert my attention from what’s most important – PRICE.
Have you ever been to a magic show? Isn’t amazing how magicians pull rabbits out of hats and make all those things disappear? Of course, the “amazing” is only possible because you’re looking at one hand when you should be watching the other. Magicians succeed at performing their tricks to the extent that they succeed at diverting your attention.
That’s why I hate technical indicators; they divert my attention the same way magicians do. Nevertheless, I have found a way to live with them, and I do use them. Here’s how: Rather than using technical indicators as a means to gauge momentum or pick tops and bottoms, I use them to identify potential trade setups.
Three Reasons to Learn to Love Technical Indicators
Out of the hundreds of technical indicators I have worked with over the years, my favorite study is MACD (an acronym for Moving Average Convergence-Divergence). MACD, which was developed by Gerald Appel, uses two exponential moving averages (12-period and 26-period). The difference between these two moving averages is the MACD line. The trigger or Signal line is a 9-period exponential moving average of the MACD line (usually seen as 12/26/9�so don’t misinterpret it as a date). Even though the standard settings for MACD are 12/26/9, I like to use 12/25/9 (it’s just me being different). An example for MACD is shown in Figure 10-1 (Coffee).
The simplest trading rule for MACD is to buy when the MACD line (the thin line) crosses above the Signal line (the thick line), and sell when the MACD line crosses below the Signal line. Some charting systems (like Genesis or CQG) may refer to the MACD line as MACD and the Signal line as MACDA. Figure 10-2 (Coffee) highlights the buy-and-sell signals generated from this very basic interpretation.
Although many people use MACD this way, I choose not to, primarily because MACD is a trend-following or momentum indicator. An indicator that follows trends in a sideways market (which some say is the state of markets 80% of the time) will get you killed. For that reason, I like to focus on different information that I’ve observed and named: Hooks, Slingshots and Zero-Line Reversals. Once I explain these, you’ll understand why I’ve learned to love technical indicators.
Keep reading about Hooks, Slingshots, and Zero Line Reversals in The Commodity Trader’s Classroom. This free eBook is filled with 32 pages of actionable trading lessons, such as:
How to Make Yourself a Better Trader
How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading
When to Place a Trade
How to Identify and Use Support and Resistance Levels
How to Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading
How to Integrate Technical Analysis into an Elliott Wave Forecast
You may be missing trading opportunities that are staring you in the face. The charts you look at every day could reveal high-confidence trade setups and market turning points, and you can learn how to find them, today.
Elliott Wave International (EWI) has just released a free eBook, How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading.
It features 14 chart-filled pages that explain Fibonacci and provide practical tools to help you formulate and execute your own trading strategy by combining wave analysis with Fibonacci relationships. You’ll never look at charts the same way again!
Created from a $129 two-volume eBook by EWI, this valuable report is offered free until February 6.
Don’t miss out on this opportunity to learn how Fibonacci can change the way you trade forever.
Technical indicators help traders recognize price levels where markets turns are likely to happen. They are not always a sure shot but they do help turn the odds in your favor, perhaps because many others are watching the same indicators making them a kind of self fulfilling prophecy. Since 1999, Elliott Wave International senior analyst and trading instructor Jeffrey Kennedy has produced dozens of Trader’s Classroom lessons exclusively for his subscribers. While commodity markets are known as some of the toughest trading environments around, these actionable lessons from a skilled veteran can help you trade commodities, or any market for that matter, with more confidence.
Enjoy this excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free Club EWI resource, the 32-page Commodity Trader’s Classroom.
Congestion
“Congestion” is my term for sideways price movement or range trading. And the Elliott wave pattern that best fits this description is a triangle. Those of you who have held a position during these periods know that it’s not fun. But the upside is that congestion often provides support or resistance for future price movements regardless of when it occurs. In May Coffee (Figure 6-1), notice how the brief period of congestion that occurred in early November 2003 acted as support for the December pullback. This happened again when the January selloff fell into listless trading for the rest of the month.
The weekly chart of Sugar (Figure 6-2) shows how these periods can also act as resistance.
And if you think about it, the tendency of congestion phases to act as support or resistance is right in line with the Elliott wave guideline on fourth wave retracements: support for a fourth wave pullback is the previous fourth wave extreme of one lesser degree.
Highs, Lows and Gaps
Other areas to watch for price reversals are previous highs and lows and also gaps. You can see on the chart of May Corn (Figure 6-3), for instance, that the September 2003 high was a significant hurdle for prices to overcome. For three months, each attempt to break through this level failed to produce a sizable decline. Also notice the small gap that occurred in early October. The December selloff closed this gap, and in doing so, introduced the subsequent rally. I have mentioned before how gaps often attract prices like magnets at first. Then they repel them — literally. Prices fill the gap and flee the scene, you could say.
The April chart of Lean Hogs (Figure 6-4) gives us two examples of the same setup: The February advance failed at the previous high made in November 2003, and then fell back to close the late January gap. Prices failed at a previous high again in March and then closed the gap that occurred in February.
The last chart for Orange Juice (Figure 6-5) offers one example of how previous lows can provide resistance. Each bounce within the last ten months in OJ has met resistance at or near a previous low.
Learn more trading techniques in Jeffrey’s 32-page collection of practical trading lessons — absolutely free!
Here’s what else you’ll learn:
How to Make Yourself a Better Trader
How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading
When to Place a Trade
How to Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading
How to Integrate Technical Analysis into an Elliott Wave Forecast
Like many of us you probably use technical analysis to gain an edge in the markets. When you look at a price chart, what do you see? A bunch of ticks, some ups and downs, perhaps a pattern? Do you see the trend, support and resistance levels, and who’s in charge of the market — the bulls or the bears?
Learn to spot these critical elements and more in Elliott Wave International’s free eBook, Learn to Identify High Probability Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns.
In this free 14-page eBook, EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy will teach you how to look at your charts and find critical support and resistance levels. Even more importantly, you’ll learn what these levels mean to your trading positions and stop levels.
You will learn how to look at the simplest part of the chart — the price bar — so that you can determine the next most likely market move.
Jeffrey pulls from over 15 years of experience analyzing and trading the markets, to teach you the very same techniques that helped him become a successful trader.
Learn how to identify trading opportunities using price bars and chart patterns.
Stock market has topped in 2011 and we had our first 5 wave decline according to elliott wave theory. It appears that a major decline is in it’s early stages already. Is it a buying opportunity or will the stock market fall further in 2012?
Every year or two Elliott Wave International (EWI) publishes analysis with a message so critical that they decide to share it, FREE.
They have just released The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012, a free report to help you navigate the markets and prepare for what’s ahead. You’ll get hard facts, 25 eye-opening charts and 14 pages of straightforward commentary that will put the volatile market action of the past months into perspective within the “big picture” to help you position for the years to come.
How Moving Averages Can Alert You to Future Price Expansions
To a first-time observer, watching a technical analyst spot a major trend change in a financial market before it occurs can seem as mystical as pulling a rabbit out of hat. But once you learn the tools of the trade, you know there are no tricks up the technical analyst’s sleeve. What you see, is exactly what you get.
On this, EWI’s Senior Commodities Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy speaks to one technical indicator in particular: moving averages. In Jeffrey’s own words:
“There is no magic in moving averages, the magic comes in finding something that you are comfortable with and applying it. I like it because it consistently works and you can customize it to your individual trading style and time frame.”
Jeffrey’s appreciation of the measure doesn’t end there. In his highly acclaimed Commodity Trader’s Classroom eBook, Jeffery expands on the many variations of MA analysis used to identify high probability trade set-ups. Among his favorites: the Moving Average Compression. The excerpt below is a direct quote from Jeffrey’s eBook:
“Moving Average Compression works so well in identifying trade set-ups because it represents periods of market contraction. As we know, because of the Wave Principle, after markets expand, they contract (when a five-wave move is complete, prices retrace a portion of this move in three waves.) MAC alerts you to those periods of price contraction. And since this state of price activity can’t be sustained, MAC is also the precursor to price expansion.
The Live Cattle chart above demonstrates three different simple moving averages based on Fibonacci numbers 13, 21 and 34. The point at which all of the moving averages become one and form a straight line is what Jeffrey refers to as Moving Average Compression. As you can see, the compression of the moving averages tells us that the market has contracted, and prompts the expansion shown in April and May 2004.”
FreeWeek is back!
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Stocks for the past 10 years have moved up and down and have reached no where after much heartache. Was it worth to take the risk? Was the stress worth it? What should we do next? Will the stocks embark on the next bull market if we sit on the sidelines? What is the risk? Or is it going to be another decade of lackluster results?
“Lost decade.”
The phrase originally applied to Japan’s stock market. Yet in terms of depth and scale, it more accurately describes today’s markets and economy in the United States.
This became clearer than ever September 21, when CNNMoney ran an article titled “A Rough 10 Years for the Middle Class.” Given the data it reported, somebody’s rose-colored glasses must have substituted the word “rough” for the more honest “dreadful.”
Just when investors thought the stock market’s 50% drop in 2007-2009 was behind them, wham, the Dow dropped 2000 points within a short two-week period this summer. And since then, it’s a daily guessing game as to which way the market will go and how large the swings will be.
What does all this mean for you and your investments?
Bob Prechter has just released a FREE report — with urgent analysis from his August and September 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist market letters. It will help you put these uncertain markets into perspective so that you’ll be better positioned to both protect your investments when needed and prosper when opportunities arise.
Bob’s 30-plus years of market experience, in both bull and bear markets, can be an invaluable resource when the markets are volatile and investors are most vulnerable. This report offers is a unique opportunity for you to see what Prechter’s subscribers see.
Don’t wait! Prepare yourself today with Bob Prechter’s current market analysis.
EWI’s Jeffrey Kennedy shows you how your psychological strengths and weaknesses determine your ability to “live long and prosper” in fast-moving markets
By Elliott Wave International
Do your decisions rely on data, or do you go with your gut?
Think about your most recent auto purchase. Was it based on meticulous consumer research or did you go with a model that “felt right”?
How about the last time you had to assemble something? Did you read the manual first or just figure it out as you went?
What about your most recent successful stock market trade?
Consistent trading success demands independent thinking and emotional discipline.
I just cannot stress enough how you have to manage your emotions whenever you’re on [a] position.
Field dependence can sabotage you unknowingly when you’re trading, because you’ll see a trade signal, the trade will be there, but “it just won’t feel right.”
[It's] one of those things that can sabotage us if we’re not aware of it, or, more importantly, [don't] have a well-defined methodology and the discipline to follow it.
In footage from his trading course in Las Vegas, he goes on to discuss the psychological profile that makes “the best trader:”
Learn more about managing your emotions, developing your trading methodology, and the importance of discipline in your trading decisions in The Best of Trader’s Classroom, a FREE 45-page eBook from Elliott Wave International.
Since 1999, Jeffrey Kennedy has produced dozens of Trader’s Classroom lessons exclusively for his subscribers. Now you can get “the best of the best” in these 14 lessons that offer the most critical information every trader should know.
Find out why traders fail, the three phases of a trader’s education, and how to make yourself a better trader with lessons on the Wave Principle, bar patterns, Fibonacci sequences, and more!
Learn more about using Momentum analysis to make Elliott wave trading decisions
in this video by EWI European Interest Rate Analyst Bill Fox. Find more lessons
on technical indicators in EWI’s newest free report. See the information below.
Learn the Best Technical Indicators for Successful Trading
In this free report, you will learn the tools of the trade directly from the analysts
at Elliott Wave International. This free report uses both video lessons
and reports to teach you how to incorporate technical indicators into your
analysis to improve your trading decisions. Get your technical indicators report now.
Mainstream media is trying to rationalize the stock market decline tying it to the economic woes, news and events. But have not have these problems for some years now? Why rally for years on the same news and then suddenly turn south losing 500 points a day every other day? Could the reason fo market decline be something else? Something subtle yet obvious to the alert eyes? Something that mainstream media does not want to say? In the May 2008 issue of his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter showed this chart of the Dow Jones Industrials. As you can see, prices go back to the 1970s.
Please note that on the day this chart published (May 16), the Dow closed at 12,987 — barely eight percent below the Dow’s all-time high of the previous October.
Yet, as you can also clearly see, Prechter labeled the white space below the May 2008 price level as “Free Fall Territory.”
At the time, no one else dared to publish such a bearish forecast. This was before the Lehman bankruptcy, the bailout binge, the home foreclosure crisis, and certainly before the worst of the stock market collapse.
In his June 2011 Theorist, Prechter published an update to the chart above, and here’s the major difference: The updated chart “telescopes out” by one full degree of trend. Prices go back to the 1930s. The scale of the white space surrounding this chart’s “free fall territory” label will show you what Prechter truly means.
His commentary in that issue also observed that
“the March-April [2011] rally was one of the most passionate bouts of stock buying I have ever witnessed.”
Bob Prechter made this observation not in admiration, but as a warning.
In the past three weeks, the Dow Industrials have plummeted nearly 2,000 points. Most investors are confused and scared. How far down will the decline travel? Will it end tomorrow or go on for years?
The answers to these questions are crucial to your financial health. You can still get ahead of the trend, but only if you prepare now. Read EWI’s long and near-term forecast. Get it in one comprehensive package — and stay ahead of the crowd.
And — get Bob Prechter’s August Elliott Wave Theorist. It includes “many dozens” of charts. Bob will also record this Theorist as a rare “video issue” — you’ll be able to watch and listen as Prechter himself presents all the content.
Also — as part of the same package, you get the August issue of our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast — you’ll see and read about the latest big picture in stocks, dollar, gold and more.
The Dow has plummeted over 2000 points in the past weeks and it seems like volatility is here to stay.
Yet, market volatility doesn’t have to bring confusion and fear when you’re prepared with the necessary market analysis. For example, here’s what Robert Prechter had to say about market volatility in his May 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist market letter:
Market volatility makes most investors less certain about market trends. Elliott waves, however, become clearer the more intense the market’s behavior.
When social mood is changing dramatically, non-mood-related short-term noise has a minimal impact, so even waves of small degree adhere more closely to textbook forms. The five-wave decline from October 2007 to March 2009 was quite beautiful, as were most of its sub-waves.
It is an ironic aspect of wave application that when others are more confused wave analysts tend to be less so.
Get a glimpse into Robert Prechter’s current outlook on these volatile markets when you read his recently released FREE report. It includes an 84-year study of stock values that will help you understand and prepare for today’s critical market juncture.
Prechter describes the once in a lifetime stock market opportunity that is ahead of us. He is expecting a major crash that is a great short opportunity. According to Prechter, the bottom of the deflationary depression will be the greatest buying opportunity of a life time if you can hold cash until then.
Robert Prechter Discusses Market Forecasts on CNBC Closing Bell
“The problem is deeper than just a minor recovery
or a minor recession.”
Robert Prechter joins CNBC hosts Bill Griffeth and Maria Bartiromo on Closing
Bell to talk about the still-unfolding forecasts presented in his New York
Times bestseller Conquer the Crash.
We invite you to watch the interview below. Then download Prechter’s
free report that uses an 84-year study of stock market values to help
you prepare for and understand today’s critical market juncture.
Download Robert Prechter’s Free Report To Discover How You Can
Prepare For Today’s Critical Market Juncture
While
we’re sure you’re reading countless articles and analysis about the market’s
recent volatility, if you’re not reading what EWI’s subscribers read, you’re
missing the valuable, prescient perspective contained in each issue of Robert
Prechter’s market letter, TheElliott Wave Theorist.
Access Robert Prechter’s free report and read in-depth analysis — including
an 84-year study of stock values — that will help you prepare for and understand
today’s critical market juncture.
Should Stock Market Investors “Fret Over the Economy”? No ! See Chart to Understand Why The idea that the economy leads the stock market is false
As the DJIA fell 2% to close below 12,000 on August 2, 2011, one theme rang across major financial websites. This CNN headline summarizes it:
Stocks sink as investors fret over the economy (Aug. 2)
The belief that the economy drives the stock market is common knowledge; it’s Investing 101; the idea gets pounded into investors’ heads, over and over again, by various pundits, daily.
But please allow us to suggest this: Belief that the GDP and other economic measures drive stock market trends is completely and utterly false.
The strength or weakness of the economy does not lead the stock market higher or lower. The economy follows the stock market.
“Stocks lead the economy, normally by months,” writes EWI president Robert Prechter; he has studied this subject in-depth. Here’s an excerpt from our Club EWI resource, the free 50-page 2011 Independent Investor eBook, which quotes one of Prechter’s research papers.
Suppose that you had perfect foreknowledge that over the next 3¾ years GDP would be positive every single quarter and that one of those quarters would surprise economists in being the strongest quarterly rise in a half-century span. Would you buy stocks?
If you had acted on such knowledge in March 1976, you would have owned stocks for four years in which the DJIA fell 22%. If at the end of Q1 1980 you figured out that the quarter would be negative and would be followed by yet another negative quarter, you would have sold out at the bottom.
Suppose you were to possess perfect knowledge that next quarter’s GDP will be the strongest rising quarter for a span of 15 years, guaranteed. Would you buy stocks?
Had you anticipated precisely this event for 4Q 1987, you would have owned stocks for the biggest stock market crash since 1929. GDP was positive every quarter for 20 straight quarters before the crash and for 10 quarters thereafter.
But the market crashed anyway. Three years after the start of 4Q 1987, stock prices were still below their level of that time despite 30 uninterrupted quarters of rising GDP. Figure 10 shows these two events.
It seems that there is something wrong with the idea that investors rationally value stocks according to growth or contraction in GDP. (…continued)
If you found this insight eye-opening, keep reading the2011 Independent Investor eBook, an educational, powerful and FREE 50-page eBook to help you think independently.Thousands of investors have downloaded the Independent Investor eBook, and it has changed the way they think forever. Now YOU can get this important eBook packed with insightful analysis from 2010 and 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist and Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. — all you need is a free Club EWI password.
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Acceleration Channel
You can get trading lessons (just like this one), daily video analysis and expert commodity picks – absolutely FREE! 
While
If you found this insight eye-opening, keep reading the2011 Independent Investor eBook, an educational, powerful and FREE 50-page eBook to help you think independently.Thousands of investors have downloaded the Independent Investor eBook, and it has changed the way they think forever. Now YOU can get this important eBook packed with insightful analysis from 2010 and 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist and Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. —